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comes-year outlook 2021

­Probably ­no one ­expected ­the course of 2020 in ­this form­. Instead of ­addressing global trends­, ­many ­companies ­had to ­face ­Covid-19 ­and not ­everyone will ­survive ­the ­crisis. ­With ­continued ­high ­infection rates ­and ­enacted ­measures, it is clear that 2021 ­will be ­as much ­about ­the ­Corona Crisis. ­Issues such as ­adaptation ­and, more importantly, ­resilience will ­play ­a ­major ­role in ­the ­face of ­existential fears. ­But ­what ­other ­topics will ­occupy the ­economy in the ­coming year ­besides the ­pandemic, ­and to what extent ­has ­structural change­ been ­influenced by ­the ­crisis­?

­Economy ­global

­In 2021, the ­global ­economy will be ­shaped, ­among other things, by the ­world’s ­largest free trade agreement, ­which the ­economically ­leading ­countries of the ­Asia-Pacific region ­have­ signed. ­The agreement will ­mark ­a ­turning point in ­the geopolitical ­world order ­and ­the PR ­China in ­particular will ­benefit from ­it. ­Already in 2020, ­China’s ­economy was ­still growing at 2%, ­unlike ­other ­nations, ­despite the ­Corona pandemic fallout. In ­November 2020, ­China’s exports ­grew ­20% ­year-over-year­. The dependence on ­China will ­continue to ­increase in the ­coming ­years­. It will ­become all the more important for ­Germany and ­Europe, on the ­one­ hand, to ­revive their ­partnership with the US ­and, on the ­other, to ­further expand ­their ­presence in ­Asian ­markets­. ­Furthermore, the ­economic ­development of the ­two economies, the ­USA and ­China, is ­being ­driven ­by enormous ­economic stimulus packages, ­so that ­the ­export-strong ­German ­economy in particular ­could­ benefit from ­this. ­In addition, the ECB will ­continue to maintain ­its ­package of measures ­so that the ­European ­economy is ­supported.  Although ­a Brexit trade agreement has ­been­ agreed ­between the ­United ­Kingdom and the EU, ­the country­’s exit from ­the EU will ­nevertheless ­continue to ­occupy ­the ­economy in the ­new year. However, Brexit ­will hit the UK harder as the EU is the ­largest ­trading market ­for the ­UK. Due to the ­provision of vaccines ­and ­further fiscal policy ­measures, it can be ­assumed ­that the economy will probably ­develop­ positively in the ­course of the ­year, ­provided that the lockdown ­is ­largely ­ended in ­the ­course of the ­first ­quarter.­ 

­Economy ­national

With the ­ongoing ­lockdown, ­a ­return to ­pre-crisis levels in ­2021 is ­becoming increasingly ­unlikely­. However, it can be ­assumed ­that there will ­be ­further ­massive ­support measures for the ­economy from ­politicians, ­at least until the upcoming ­federal election. ­Various ­packages of measures ­and a temporary ­suspension of ­the ­obligation to file for insolvency ­(mainly ­due to ­over-indebtedness­) ­have ­at least ­postponed ­the ­impending ­wave of insolvencies into the ­future­. ­Essentially all ­sectors ­are ­affected by ­the ­Corona crisis. ­Examples ­include ­the ­hospitality industry­, ­retail, the hotel sector ­and the ­mobility and ­events sector­, which have ­been­ ­hit­ hardest by the ­measures. ­Various ­companies ­will ­continue to ­have to ­claim ­short-time working benefits on a ­large ­scale.

­In ­addition, ­the “­Act on the ­Stabilisation and ­Restructuring Framework for ­Companies” (StaRUG) ­came into force ­on ­1 ­January. ­The ­Act ­obliges the ­management of ­a ­company to ­protect ­the ­interests of creditors ­and to ­implement ­a ­system for the ­early detection of crises in ­its ­corporate organisation­. In ­future, ­companies will ­have to pay ­more attention ­to ­their ­liquidity planning­. In ­general, the ­Act­ aims to ­distinguish ­more ­clearly between ­over-indebtedness ­and imminent ­insolvency and to ­enable ­early corporate restructuring ­as a ­measure ­to avert insolvency­.

­Another ­factor that will have an ­impact ­on ­German ­society is the ­Bundestag elections ­in autumn 2021. After 16 ­years and four ­legislative periods, ­Angela ­Merkel­’s ­term in office­ will come ­to an end­. The study “Young Germans 2021” makes it clear ­that ­young people ­currently ­feel ­let down by ­politics. ­With a view to the ­Bundestag elections, it ­is ­evident that ­politics ­must ­win over ­young voters who ­grew up with ­Merkel ­and ­address ­socially ­relevant ­issues. ­The ­future ­federal government will ­determine ­the political-strategic ­direction of ­Germany in the ­national and ­global ­arena.

­Trade

After the end of the lockdown, ­there will ­be ­catch-up effects ­in the ­trade, ­at least for ­some ­areas. However, a ­large part of the ­trade will ­face ­a ­tense ­economic year ­due to the ­long lockdown ­and the ­hygiene measures that will ­certainly ­continue to ­exist. ­A ­large number of ­insolvencies are ­expected. ­However, the ­problems, ­especially in ­brick-and-mortar ­retail, are ­not ­entirely ­due­ to the ­Corona pandemic­. They ­lie much ­further in the ­past. The ­structural problems ­have ­caught up with ­retailers more quickly ­than ­expected ­and are ­accelerating the market shakeout in ­the ­segment. ­Sustainable offers, such ­as ­second hand as ­well as circular ­fashion and/or ­articles, are ­becoming stronger in terms of turnover as ­people are ­increasingly ­consuming ­more consciously.

­In ­addition, ­the ­issues of connectivity ­and ­technology are ­changing ­retail in ­that ­personless ­shopping or ­in-store ­digital ­presentations ­will ­become ­more prevalent. ­Retailers ­should ­also ­introduce ­new technologies such as augmented ­reality­. ­However,­ this will ­require ­technology-savvy ­employees. There will ­also be a ­re-evaluation of ­the ­location and ­even ­stronger ­networking ­between ­online and ­stationary ­business­. The ­question will arise ­whether an ­online business ­with ­occasionally ­opened pop-up stores ­is ­preferable to a ­purely ­stationary ­business model.

­Furthermore, ­the ­current ­crisis is ­accelerating ­the ­transformation of ­city centres­. The ­dominance of chain stores has ­already ­increased in ­recent ­years­. With the home office, ­above ­all the ­movement profile ­and buying behaviour ­in the big cities has ­changed. ­People­ are ­increasingly ­staying ­in ­their neighbourhoods ­and ­using ­local ­retailers and ­gastronomy­, which is a ­great ­opportunity for ­smaller owner-managed ­stores. ­In addition, ­hybrid ­models ­will become more ­prevalent­. ­Accordingly, consumers will ­want to ­shop ­in ­independent ­stores. ­Above all, mixed-use cities ­and ­mixed-use neighbourhoods ­will ­establish themselves in order ­to ­make the ­transition from a ­car-oriented ­city to ­a ­compact ­city that is in line ­with ­urbanisation­. ­Sustainable ­neighbourhoods are ­characterised by a holistic ­mixed-use ­form that ­includes­ ­workplaces­, ­shopping and ­leisure facilities­, ­social meeting places ­and residential areas­.

In the ­field of e-commerce, ­direct-to-consumer ­(D2C) ­business will ­become­ elementary. ­More and more ­manufacturers of ­consumer goods are ­relying on ­direct ­customer contact to ­sell ­their ­products­. ­Intermediaries are ­losing ­relevance. ­This is caused, among other things, by ­shopping via ­social ­media, so-called ­social ­commerce, and ­messenger shopping­, so-called ­conversational ­commerce. ­In addition, ­food retailers ­and ­producers of ­fast-moving consumer goods, so-called FMCG companies, ­are adapting ­their ­business model ­to ­online retailing­. Subscription models ­and click & collect, which were ­well ­suited ­during the ­Corona crisis, ­will continue to ­establish ­themselves­. E-commerce ­also­ benefits ­logistics, which ­primarily has ­to optimize the ­so-called ­last mile of ­delivery. It is ­conceivable ­that ­suppliers in ­less densely ­populated ­areas will ­cooperate, ­split up ­spatially ­and/or that ­delivery by drone ­will become established in ­rural ­regions in the ­future.

Real Estate

­Real estate markets always ­react to economic changes with a time lag. The ­recession ­in the wake of the ­pandemic ­will ­primarily ­affect ­rents ­and ­property values in the ­course of ­2021. ­Commercial real estate in the ­retail sector ­as well as ­hotels­ are ­suffering ­the most ­due to the ­lockdown measures on the ­one hand ­and ­the ­changing ­purchasing behaviour of ­consumers on ­the ­other­. Consequently, ­there have been and will ­be­ ­further rent losses. There is ­a threat of ­vacancies in the ­medium term­, especially in ­less ­favoured ­locations­. As a result, the ­price declines that were ­already ­occurring ­before the ­pandemic­ will ­continue in ­some ­regions for ­commercial real estate­.

­In contrast, ­take-up of ­office properties has ­declined for ­the time being in the ­course of ­2020­. Partly ­as a result of ­low vacancy rates ­and a ­low level of ­new construction activity in the ­past,­ the ­increasing reluctance of ­investors to take up office space ­has ­not yet had any ­impact on the development of rents­. In 2021, the ­demand for office space is ­likely to ­be ­weaker ­due to the ­previous ­development and have a ­dampening ­effect on the ­development of rents. ­However, ­free-standing ­space ­will ­remain manageable in ­view of the ­low ­starting level, ­meaning that ­pronounced ­rent declines ­are ­unlikely.

Der Markt für Wohn­im­mo­bi­li­en zeigt sich bis­lang sehr ro­bust. Ex­pli­zit die länd­li­chen Re­gio­nen bzw. die Umlandkreise von Metropolregionen werden langfristig von der Krisenzeit profitieren. Durch die Pha­se der Lock­downs ist die Wert­The market for residential real estate has been ­very ­robust to­ date. ­Explicitly ­the ­rural ­regions or the surrounding districts of metropolitan regions will benefit from the crisis period in the long term. The phase of lockdowns has ­further ­increased the ­appreciation of ­one’s own residential property. ­Many households ­have ­realised the ­importance of ­sufficient ­space­. Especially ­for ­families, the surrounding areas are ­interesting, because in the ­cities there is sometimes ­a ­surplus of demand­, ­so that there ­is ­no slump ­in the ­purchase prices for ­residential real estate. This is ­helped by the fact ­that ­real estate loans­ ­are ­currently at hardly more than 1%. ­This ­fact has ­since caused ­a ­stable ­residential construction market­.

­Fairs/Events

The ­trade fair and ­event industry is ­one of the ­sectors most ­affected by ­the ­Corona crisis. ­Further support for the ­industry is ­planned by ­the ­federal government. ­Concert organisers ­are to be encouraged to ­plan­ events. ­To this end, ­the ­federal government­ wants to ­make ­all ­expenses billable that, ­contrary to expectations, cannot ­be ­realized ­due to the ­Corona restrictions. In ­addition, a ­subsidy program ­for the ­cultural industry is ­to ­be ­enacted in ­2021. In ­general, ­the ­trade fair and ­event industry will be ­characterised by ­after-hours events in the ­coming year. ­So far­, Germany­ has been the ­world market leader in the ­trade fair industry­. However, the ­focus will ­shift to ­the Far East ­after ­China ­already ­organised ­numerous ­trade fairs in the ­pandemic year­. In ­Germany, ­on the other hand, ­private ­trade fair companies are ­threatened with ­insolvency­. As a ­future ­trend, it is becoming apparent that ­roadshows ­and ­online events will be a ­prospect for ­companies in order ­to be ­able to ­acquire­ new customers independently of ­large ­trade fairs.

Hospitality industry ­(­gastronomy ­and hotel industry­)

The ­drop in sales in the ­events industry ­and the lockdown ­are ­also ­consequential ­for the hospitality industry. ­Food service­ businesses ­were ­among the ­first to be ­forced to ­close in ­the wake of the pandemic, ­limiting their ­ability to­ generate­ revenue ­through delivery services ­and takeaways. It ­is ­likely that the catering ­industry ­will be considered for ­relaxation measures at ­a ­late ­stage. ­Due to the ­contact restrictions ­still ­in place, as ­well as ­hygiene and ­safety measures, ­there will ­certainly be ­restrictions ­throughout the year, ­meaning that ­significantly ­fewer ­guests ­can be ­catered for. ­The ­reduced sales tax for meals to 7%, which applies until 30 June 2021, will not be ­able to ­compensate for this to any extent. ­According to ­a DEHOGA survey from ­December 2020, ­70% of hospitality ­businesses ­see their ­existence threatened­. State ­aid is ­indispensable ­for ­these ­businesses­. ­Nevertheless, the ­gastronomy­ must ­become ­more resilient ­and ­diversify ­its ­offer­.

­Furthermore, it is ­evident that ­eating habits ­and ­gastronomic offerings are ­in­ a state of upheaval. ­The trend, which was ­already ­apparent ­before the ­pandemic, is ­metamorphosing ­towards organically grown food, regionality and seasonality. ­Regional ­offerings ­will ­keep ­transportation distances ­short ­and ­support ­the ­local ­economy. ­At the ­beginning of ­2020, the demand for organic food increased. ­This movement ­continued ­throughout the ­year and will ­continue in the ­coming year. ­The ­pandemic ­has strengthened the ­desire for ­healthy ­food and ­sustainability.

The hospitality industry­, primarily ­in the high-priced ­sector ­and in ­metropolitan regions, is ­also dependent on ­business travellers. ­Quite a ­few ­companies ­have ­discovered ­during the ­crisis ­that ­virtual ­meetings ­can be ­just as effective and ­will ­therefore ­increasingly ­rely on ­this type of ­exchange in the ­future. ­The ­meeting culture will ­change ­fundamentally and ­sustainably. ­Even though the ­majority ­of ­companies will ­return to ­face-to-face ­meetings­, ­a ­decline in ­business travel is ­to ­be ­expected. ­This development will ­also ­affect ­hotels in the ­cities. ­The slump in ­the ­business travel ­segment ­was massive­ last year. ­Above ­all, the ­hotels that ­have ­leased ­their ­buildings are ­threatened in ­their existence ­due to the ­high fixed costs.­ 

Tou­ris­m

Even though the trend is emerging that ­more and more ­people are ­preferring holidays in ­Germany to ­holidays abroad­, ­German tourism ­is ­in ­crisis. ­Tour operators are ­adapting ­their ­offerings ­to the ­extent ­that they are ­increasingly ­­offering ­domestic destinations ­and ­Mediterranean regions. In ­2020, every fourth TUI trip was to Hellas. ­Regions where the ­pandemic ­is ­expected to be ­mild are ­being ­preferred­. In order to ­achieve ­an increase in ­bookings ­by package ­holidaymakers­, TUI is now focusing on different ­rates of ­holiday packages ­with flights, ­accommodation ­as well as ­additional services ­in the form of ­flexibility. There are ­also­ signs of ­a ­stronger trend towards ­holiday apartments ­and houses ­as well as self-sufficient ­travel options­. ­Furthermore, short breaks in the city and the great outdoors are among the favourites of ­German holidaymakers ­for 2021­. ­These ­trips ­are mostly ­organized ­privately and without ­travel agencies. The ­camping industry in ­particular ­proved to be a ­winner in the crisis­. While ­tour operators ­and ­hoteliers ­fear ­for their ­existence­, 2020 ­proved to be a record year for the camping industry.

­Meanwhile, ­the cruise industry ­is ­marked by ­an uncertain ­future. ­The ­shipping companies ­and shipyards ­are an important factor for the economy in northern Germany. Due to the ­loss of sales, higher ­prices for cruises are ­also­ being ­calculated­. However, cruise holidaymakers will be unsettled in 2021 and remain hesitant when it comes to bookings. Not only is ­recurring ­information about cancellations ­and ­itinerary changes unsettling­, but the vagueness ­about ­what ­restrictions can ­be expected ­during the ­cruise discourages ­booking. ­From the point of view of ­German holidaymakers, ­cruise tourism ­as well as ­individual and package tours ­will ­continue to ­expand ­from near regions ­such as the North Sea and Baltic Sea to ­the ­Mediterranean in the ­medium term and to ­increasingly intercontinental ­destinations in the ­long term­.

­Another ­factor is that ­many holidaymakers ­consider ­a vaccine ­against ­Covid-19 ­necessary ­before booking ­a ­trip abroad. ­Therefore, ­intercontinental travel­ will ­probably not be ­possible on ­a ­larger scale ­until the end of 2021, ­when ­many ­people ­have been ­vaccinated ­and quarantine obligations have ­been lifted. ­However, ­these ­trips require a lot of ­planning ­due to ­flights ­to and ­from the country­. ­Therefore, it is ­likely ­that 2021 will be a transition year for the travel industry. ­Mass tourism ­will not ­take place abroad, ­but locally in recreational areas. ­Holidays in Germany ­will become a fully-fledged ­substitute for ­annual holidays ­lasting several weeks­. ­Tour operators ­must ­therefore ­act flexibly in ­relation to the current ­situation­. ­Offers that ­can be rebooked ­and cancelled ­free of charge­, last-minute bookings ­and a ­comprehensive ­digitalised ­security concept ­will ­be­ indispensable.s Si­cher­heits­kon­zept wer­den un­ab­ding­bar sein.

­Mobility

Along with ­the severely ­curtailed ­tourism and the absence of ­business ­travel, there were ­significant slumps in ­the ­aviation industry. ­These ­could not even ­be ­compensated ­by the ­increasing ­cargo sector­, as cargo capacities ­in ­passenger aircraft ­were ­also ­eliminated on a large scale.

­Aviation ­is ­in the ­midst ­of a ­profound ­crisis and, according to IATA, will ­probably not be ­able to recover to pre-crisis levels until 2024 ­- ­although ­a ­much ­faster ­recovery is ­expected for ­short- and ­medium-haul routes ­than for long-haul­. ­Long-haul routes ­across the ­Atlantic and to ­Asia, ­which are­ heavily frequented by ­business travellers, ­will not ­return to­ their ­former load factors so quickly, ­as ­travel behaviour ­will change­ permanently, ­especially in the ­business customer segment. ­As ­demand for long-haul routes will ­only ­pick up again ­hesitantly­, the ­carriers from the ­Middle ­East in ­particular will ­suffer, ­as ­they ­essentially ­maintain ­a long-haul fleet ­and only ­serve­ this.

­As ­a result of the ­slump in ­passenger numbers, ­airports­ are ­currently ­suffering ­massively. ­Medium-sized ­and ­smaller ­airports in ­particular are ­experiencing ­major ­problems and are ­facing ­insolvency.

The ­Corona crisis ­has ­generally ­changed the ­mobility behaviour of ­society. The ­fear of ­infection ­and the ­focus on ­health are ­important ­factors in the ­mobility sector ­when choosing a means of transport­. In major cities worldwide­, the number of people using public transport has ­fallen by 70-90%­. Hygienically ­safe ­modes of transport ­such as ­private vehicles ­or ride-sharing ­have ­gained ­significant ­popularity. However, ­due to ­increased ­remote working and lack of ­travel (­both ­business and ­personal­), there has ­also been a ­decline in ­take-up­. ­Only ­bike-sharing providers ­saw an ­increase in ­revenue in 2020 compared to the ­previous year. ­According to ­a ­survey by McKinsey, ­respondents­ plan to ­continue to ­increase their ­use of­ bicycles ­or ­walking ­after the ­crisis. ­Demand for public transit will ­rise­ again­, though ­not to ­pre-crisis levels for ­now­. Shared ­micromobility, e-hailing and car sharing will ­also ­regain­ ­popularity. ­However, ­the ­mobility sector ­cannot ­assume that ­everything will ­return to ­pre-crisis ­levels­, ­but will have to ­consider what the new ­normal will ­be in ­addition to the ­trends that ­already ­exist in the ­sector ­anyway.

­These ­already ­existing trends are ­known ­as CASE or also ACES: ­Autonomous ­Driving, Connectivity­, ­Electrification ­and Shared ­Mobility­. ­Vehicles are exchanging ­more and more ­data. At the ­moment, entertainment and ­practical ­offerings such as ­digital ­radio or ­navigation systems ­still ­predominate­. But ­maintenance and ­safety ­functions are ­also ­becoming ­increasingly ­relevant­. The ­future of the ­industry also includes the ­planned “­mobility ­data room­”. ­This ­data is ­not only an ­important ­prerequisite for autonomous ­driving, ­but ­should also ­enable ­modern ­mobility services that ­better ­connect buses, trains and cars. Shared ­mobility ­includes ­car-sharing, ride-sharing, ride-hailing, ­micromobility and ­micro-transit­. ­Consumers are ­looking for ­a ­convenient ­approach to ­mobility to ­get­ from point A to point B. ­In this context, ­owning a ­private vehicle is ­increasingly ­seen as a ­burden, ­as convenience ­and ­flexibility ­play ­an ­ever ­greater ­role. ­Direct ­access to ­various ­mobility services ­with ­simple payment systems offers a good ­opportunity­ here. It ­also eliminates the need for ­consumers to make ­high ­initial ­capital outlays ­and ­deal with ­insurance, ­maintenance ­and ­repairs. ­However,­ this trend applies ­predominantly in ­urban areas. In ­rural areas, the ­private vehicle­ remains ­the ­most popular ­means of transport due to a ­lack of ­suitable ­alternatives for ­economic ­reasons. ­Probably the ­biggest ­trend, ­and also the one most ­promoted by ­politicians, is ­electrification, which is ­seen ­as the ­future of ­mobility. In order to ­achieve the ­set ­climate targets­, the emission of ­greenhouse gases is ­being ­pushed to ­a ­minimum. ­The focus is ­on ­alternative, ­emission-neutral ­or ­low-emission ­drives.

­Automotive

The ­automotive industry is ­increasingly being ­forced to­ change by ­politicians due to new emissions regulations. ­From 2021, a new target value for new car fleets of 95g CO2per kilometre will ­apply, which ­effectively ­corresponds to ­an ­average consumption of ­4.1 ­litres of ­petrol or 3.6 ­litres of ­diesel per ­100 ­kilometres. ­In order to ­achieve ­the CO 2fleet ­and ­sector targets in the ­long term as­ well, ­a ­significant ­proportion of the new car fleet ­will have ­to be ­electrified. As a ­result, there will ­be ­substantial subsidies ­(­environmental bonus­, ­innovation premiums­, ­tax exemptions­, ­etc.) ­not only from ­politicians ­but also from the ­manufacturers themselves for ­electric or partially electric ­models. The ­subsidies ­and the ­agreed ­expansion of the charging infrastructure are ­bearing ­fruit: car sales ­fell by around 20% year-on-year in 2020, ­but ­car sales ­for electric and ­hybrid vehicles ­boomed­.r­zeu­ge boom­te.

­Delivery times for ­these ­models are ­significantly ­longer than for ­comparable ­models with ­combustion engines for ­all ­manufacturers­. A ­return to ­pre-crisis levels is ­not ­expected­ until 2025 ­and even then demand for ­combustion engines is ­likely to be ­significantly ­lower ­due to the ­increased ­share of ­electric vehicles­. ­Car manufacturers will ­therefore­ have to shift ­their ­capacity from the ­traditional ­internal combustion car market ­to the e-car market­. This is also ­reinforced by­ the ­fact that in the ­future, the sale of new cars ­with ­combustion engines will be ­prohibited in ­some ­countries. ­VW plans to ­stop ­developing ­combustion engines in ­2026­, and ­Mercedes and BMW are ­positioning their ­business to also ­focus on ­electric drive in the ­second ­half of the ­decade­.

As the ­digitization of ­vehicles progresses, ­manufacturers­ are expanding ­their ­value creation opportunities­. For example, ­some vehicles­ are ­delivered ­with full equipment ­and the ­user can ­add equipment­ functions ­such as heated seats­, cornering lights­, ­autonomous ­driving­,­ etc. in the subscription system­. This will ­also have a ­lasting effect on the ­used car market, ­as the ­supply ­will increase­ significantly.

­The ­structural change is also ­making itself ­felt in the ­supplier industry­. ­Electric drives ­require ­entirely ­new ­components that are ­far ­fewer and less ­cost-intensive. ­In particular, ­suppliers who ­specialize in ­engine blocks ­or ­components for ­combustion engines will have ­to ­adapt ­their ­business model in ­good time. ­In ­earlier ­years, the ­decisive ­component of ­a ­vehicle ­was ­the ­hardware. ­In the future,­ this will become ­increasingly trivial ­and ­value creation will be ­massively ­dependent on ­software. ­With subscription models for ­additional equipment ­or even ­completely ­new ­offers such as ­video streaming ­and ­shopping, when the ­vehicles ­drive­ autonomously, ­completely new ­value creation opportunities will ­open up­. ­Apple has demonstrated ­how ­selling apps ­can ­continue to ­make a ­lot of money from the software ­even after the ­hardware is ­actually ­sold. ­Here, ­car manufacturers­ must be ­careful not to ­be ­left behind ­by tech companies ­and ­degraded to ­mere ­suppliers­. The ­mobility of the ­future is characterized by ­networking­, ­safety and ­comfort. ­Hardware will ­remain ­important, but ­software will be the decisive factor in ­competition.

­In ­addition to the ­structural change in ­the ­automotive industry, ­car dealerships also ­have ­to ­contend with the ­increasing ­digitalization of ­trade. ­Online trade ­and subscription models are ­also playing ­an increasingly ­relevant ­role in car ­purchases, ­which is why the ­stationary ­car trade will ­continue to ­lose­ importance. ­Manufacturers are ­increasingly­ taking over the ­new car fleet business ­themselves and the ­used car trade is ­also ­increasingly­ taking ­place on ­online platforms. The ­pace of ­change in ­the ­car trade ­varies from ­region to region. ­In ­urban areas, ­dealers­ will ­increasingly­ form ­alliances ­and ­try to ­establish ­themselves ­under ­their own ­brand ­both ­online and ­offline as a manufacturer-independent supplier of ­various ­brands­.

­Customers­ can ­then ­compare ­products and ­prices in ­so-called ­megastores. The ­appearance ­as agents of ­manufacturers, who ­take over ­tasks such as ­test drives ­or ­vehicle handovers as ­part of direct sales, will ­also be ­more common ­in the ­future. It is ­important to ­focus on ­selective ­points of interaction ­with ­customers to ­increase ­customer satisfaction ­and ­improve the ­customer experience­. In rural areas, the ­pace of ­change­ will be ­much ­slower­. This is ­due to the ­low ­mobility density ­and ­lower ­real estate and rental prices of ­car dealerships­. Here, too, there will be ­a ­shift towards ­multi-brand dealerships, ­yet the dealer network will ­thin out ­due to a ­lack of ­appeal­. As ­more and more ­people -especially in ­urban ­areas – do ­without­ their own car ­due to ­a ­wide ­range of mobility options­, ­car dealerships­ should ­evolve ­from new and ­used car sales to ­mobility sales. ­Many ­dealers ­will ­take up ­new ­business models ­such as ­their own car-sharing offers ­or subscription models. ­Increasing concentration ­is ­taking place and it is ­expected that up to 50% of dealers will have disappeared from the market by ­2025.

En­er­gy

In order to ­anchor a ­new long-term goal of ­greenhouse gas neutrality in ­Germany­ before the year 2050­, ­the amendment to the ­Renewable Energy Sources Act ­(EEG) ­came into force ­on 01 ­January 2021. The ­share of ­renewable ­energies is ­planned to ­be ­65% by 2030­. From ­this causality, transmission system operators ­expect ­an ­expansion of ­renewable ­energies by 5 GW and ­thus an increase in electricity products­. ­In addition, ­European ­emissions trading ­will ­enter its ­fourth ­phase­. In order to be ­able to­ implement ­the ­energy turnaround, grid expansion ­must ­continue­. For ­years, there ­has been ­resistance ­to the construction of the ­necessary power lines­. ­Another issue that ­will preoccupy ­the ­energy industry in the ­coming year is the ­completion of the German-Russian North Stream 2 ­gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. The US ­government is in an ­effort to ­prevent ­the completion of ­the gas pipeline.

­Pharmaceuticals and ­chemicals

­The ­search for ­suitable vaccines ­against the SARS-CoV-2 ­virus and ­their ­distribution will ­continue to be the ­focus in 2021. ­Since 21 ­December 2020, the vaccine ­from Biontech and Pfizer, ­and since 06 ­January 2021, the vaccine ­from ­Moderna, have been ­officially ­licensed in ­the EU. ­Some ­companies ­have ­already ­announced that they will ­expand ­their ­production capacities ­for ­a ­Corona vaccine in order to ­enable ­the ­most rapid ­and widespread ­supply ­possible. ­However, not only ­companies involved in the ­production of the vaccine will ­benefit from the ­pandemic, ­but ­all those ­offering ­Corona-related ­products such as rapid tests ­or disinfectants will ­continue to ­see ­rising ­sales­.

­Megatrends ­digitalization ­and ­sustainability

It is ­clear that ­digitalisation ­and ­sustainability ­continue to be ­megatrends ­in ­all ­areas. ­The ­crisis has ­only ­highlighted the ­processes and ­importance of ­these topics ­even ­more­. On average, ­digitised companies have ­come ­through the ­crisis­ better ­and ­have been able to ­adapt more ­quickly to the ­new circumstances. ­The standstill ­or ­severe shutdown of ­some ­production ­and ­traffic has ­made it ­clear ­how quickly air quality ­has ­recovered ­due to ­lower ­emissions of ­pollutants.

The ­topic of ­sustainability has ­become ­increasingly ­important in ­recent ­years under the banner of ­neo-ecology. ­Especially ­the younger ­society attaches more importance to ­sustainable and resource-efficient ­products for ­a ­careful ­treatment of the ­environment and the ­containment of ­climate change­. For ­example, ­due to the ­increasing ­pollution of ­the world’s oceans ­and landscapes ­by ­non-biodegradable ­materials, there will be an EU-wide ban on certain single-use plastic products from 3 July 2021. These ­include ­cotton buds­, ­cutlery, ­plates, straws, ­stirrers­, ­drinks cups ­and ­food containers ­made from polystyrene­. It also ­strongly ­promotes the ­reduction of ­greenhouse gas emissions ­and ­thus the achievement of the ­global ­sustainability goals of ­the ­Paris ­Climate Agreement ­by 2030.

­Digitization has ­become ­even more ­important in the ­context of the ­Corona Crisis. ­The defining ­theme ­for 2021, ­resilience, is ­found in ­accelerated ­change in ­many ­processes such as­. Cloud ­computing enables location-independent ­working and is in ­greater ­demand ­than ­before­. The ­use of artificial intelligence and the ­advancing ­automation of ­manufacturing work, especially in ­Industry 4.0, ­are expected to ­make ­processes ­more efficient, ­less ­error-prone ­and ­less expensive. ­Quite a ­few professions ­will ­no longer ­be ­needed in ­the course of ­digitalization. ­According to ­calculations by ­the OECD, just under 20% of jobs in Germany ­were ­already at risk from increasing automation­ 2019. 

iStock/Panuwat

­Crisis winners/losers

­Digitization ­is just ­one of the ­reasons why ­the ­technology industry is ­emerging as a ­clear ­winner from the ­Corona crisis. ­Companies ­will ­continue to upgrade their IT in the ­future to ­enable ­location-independent ­working ­and to be ­able to­ react ­better to ­such ­situations. ­In addition, the ­demand for augmented and ­virtual ­reality, e-games­, e-sports ­as well as e-commerce is ­booming­. ­This means that ­technology companies ­such as ­Amazon, ­Google­, Apple, ­Facebook and ­Microsoft ­can ­count themselves ­among the ­biggest ­winners.

­The ­pharmaceutical sector ­can also ­be ­counted among the ­winners of the ­crisis. ­It has ­already ­shown a ­high level of resilience to ­economic ­challenges ­in ­previous ­crises­, partly ­due to the ­fact that it ­can ­diversify ­well across its subsectors.

­The clear ­losers, ­on the other hand, are ­all ­industries that ­were­ affected by the ­lockdowns ­and ­public ­restrictions. These include ­bricks-and-mortar ­retail, ­tourism­, the ­hospitality industry­, ­trade fairs ­and event organisers­. Temporary ­closures ­or ­restricted ­operations due to ­prescribed hygiene measures ­have ­led to ­significant ­sales losses.

Long-term ­challenges

Langfristig be­trach­tet wird sich Deutsch­land wei­ter­hin mit ei­nem sin­ken­den Pro­duk­ti­vi­täts­wachs­tum aus­ein­an­der­set­zen m­In the long term, ­Germany­ will ­continue to ­face ­declining ­productivity growth­. ­Factors such as ­increasing ­digitalisation­, ­demographic ­change ­and climatic ­structural changes ­will ­prompt ­new ­business models ­and ­production processes that will ­lead to ­profound ­changes in the ­structure of the economy ­and the ­labour market. ­The ­German ­economy must ­accept ­these ­challenges ­and turn them into ­opportunities­.

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